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Migrating from Dublin to Sunnyvale for a second round of my "Housing Market Musings" presentation to the San Jose Real Estate Investors Association.  A bigger crowd on Day 2.  Pleasantly surprised by the crowd's technical questions, and even a few of their arguments on why I was wrong.  Many thanks to Geraldine and Meghan for the opportunity.

Many thanks to Chris & Joanne Mosellen for the privilege of being part of the Team Riders on the Storm. It's not too late to donate either.  Click here.

Awaiting my introduction to talk about the housing market. In Dublin (not that one) at the Hyatt Place hotel presenting to the local chapter of the San Jose Real Estate Investors. Small group, lots to talk about.

Just gave my two cents on the Davis housing market to the Social Services committee. Seems they were looking for assurance that the market ain’t all that bad.

Not exactly testifying in front if Barney Frank but…

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/pentagon-wants-commando…

Was flying from Kansas City (MCI) to Sacramento (SMF) via Denver (DEN) on United. Original schedule:

Okay, so it was a drag to have a 3+ hour layover in Denver, but there are worse problems to have.  Got to MCI at 1:00pm to find out that my flight was delayed 30 minutes because our plane was arriving from Chicago (ORD).  They were getting a dusting of snow.  The local United gate agents said – “No problem – the plane is in the air.” Except that an hour later, I checked online to find that it wasn’t. 

It left the gate for de-icing then was sent back to the gate because of ground holds in ORD.  Ugh.  At 2:41pm, the plane “departed” but again, it was only away from the gate – not wheels up.  I’m figuring I’m still in good shape – it’s only an hour flight from ORD to MCI, so even if the plane gets to MCI by 5:00pm, I still make by 6:51pm connection in DEN because we pick up an hour going west.  Plus the United gate agent gave me an insurance policy.  He reserved a seat for me on the 10:05pm from DEN to SMF, so even if my MCI to DEN flight was really, really late and I missed by scheduled connection, I’d still get home.  That was nice to have in my pocket.

By 4:00pm, the plane still hadn’t left ORD and I heard another traveler talking to his group to the effect of – “there’s a Southwest flight that leaves later today…” Ding! Light bulb.

I jumped online.  Lo and behold to my delight, Southwest had a flight from MCI to SMF via LAX that departs at 6:10pm, arrives to SMF at 9:30pm.  Bought the one-way ticket for $149 and walked from Terminal A to Terminal B – (it’s a long walk and partially outside in 20 degree weather, but I needed the air after spending three hours at the United gate.) Even got an A27 boarding assignment on Southwest.  Life was good.

Had an empty seat from MCI to LAX and emergency row when I switched seats from LAX to SMF.  Woohoo!

I checked this morning on the United flights.  From ORD to MCI:

City: Kansas City, MO (MCI)
Gate:
Terminal:
Scheduled Time: 1:25 p.m.
Scheduled Date: Fri., Jan. 20, 2012
Actual Time: 6:07 p.m.
Actual Date: Fri., Jan. 20, 2012

From MCI to DEN:

City: Denver, CO (DEN)
Gate: B54
Terminal: concourse b
Scheduled Time: 2:47 p.m.
Scheduled Date: Fri., Jan. 20, 2012
Actual Time: 9:39 p.m.
Actual Date: Fri., Jan. 20, 2012

There was nearly a 3 hour layover after the plane arrived at MCI from ORD. My hunch is that they needed to get a new crew because of daily hour restrictions.  Imagine being in MCI and seeing your plane land to take you to DEN only to hear that you have to wait three more hours to leave?

And I would have BARELY made the connection from DEN to SMF, assuming that 25 minutes was enough to make it. (I would hope they would have held the 10:05 DEN to SMFflight for me). Not to mention the complete stress the whole trip.)

[wiping sweat from brow]

Kudos to Southwest for making their ticketing and travel so darn easy.  Lesson here – don’t book United flights in the Winter. I didn’t even travel to or through Chicago and it still caused a mess.

Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value (and How to Take Advantage of It) by William Poundstone

The Folly of Fools: The Logic of Deceit and Self-Deception in Human Life by Robert Trivers

The Leadership Pipeline: How to Build the Leadership-Powered Company by Ram Charan, Stephen Drotter, James Noel

= 1.55 for each leg of your trip on United

For example, yesterday, I flew PHL to IAD, then IAD to SFO:

PHL to IAD is 0.75 hour flight time.

1.25 hour layover.

IAD to SF) is 6 hours flight time.

Scheduled travel time = 8 hours.

Using the United Travel Delay Coefficient:

PHL to IAD = 0.75 x 1.55 = 1.16 hours

1.25 hour layover.

IAD to SFO = 6 x 1.55 = 9.3

Actual travel time = 12.15 hours

Nice work ignoring the cargo loading plan at IAD.